Summary

In this journal article, Henrik Carlsen, Co-Director of Mistra Geopolitics and SEI Senior Research Fellow, and Nina Weitz, Senior Research Fellow and Team Leader for Global Goals and Systems at SEI and authors, present an empirically based and transparent method for developing “consistent scenarios” that identifies which SDGs will be unattainable if historical patterns of interaction between SDGs are maintained.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon pose for a group photo together with the seventeen volunteer staffs of the Vienna-based organisations to help promote the Sustainable Development Goals held in Vienna 2016. Photo credit: Dean Calma / IAEA. “Sustainable Development Goals (9495)” by IAEA Imagebank is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

Using historical data on SDG indicators and correlation analysis together with cross-impact balance analysis, the authors identify such scenarios for a set of high- to low-income countries.

The 2030 Agenda states that the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) make parts of an indivisible whole, and research on SDG implementation highlights how managing goal interactions – synergies and trade-offs – is key for implementation to be successful.

Conclusion

The authors of this paper find no consistent scenario where progress can be made on all 17 SDGs for any of the countries. Their findings demonstrate the importance of policies that target interactions and resolve trade-offs rather than individual goals to unlock a sustainable future trajectory. This reflects what was novel about the SDGs as a framework for global development; that the goals are indivisible and achieving them all require systemic changes that alter how social and economic processes interact with the environment.

Citation

Carlsen, H., Weitz, N., Petrova, K., & Kemp-Benedict, E. (2024). A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: targeting historical lock-ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs. Sustainable Development, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2929