FORESIGHT

The Geopolitics of the 2030 Agenda

Foresight and Emerging Technologies have been identified as one of the central thematic research topics of the Mistra Geopolitics programme. Forecasting tools that identify risks and opportunities for achieving the sustainability development goals (SDGs) in a geopolitically changing world will be developed.

Current technological advances in area such as artificial intelligence, communication technologies, robotics, biotechnology and material science are expected to bring economic, social, and political transformations of an unprecedented scale – for the best but also for the worst. One strand of research aims at helping international organizations and states to make sense and utilize the potential of these technologies to achieve the 2030 Agenda.

Many of today’s most distressing humanitarian emergencies are characterized by abrupt, large-scale displacement of populations within or across international borders. Methods like AI and machine learning will be utilized to develop early warning systems of climate related emergencies and population displacement.

Finally, we will examine how super national (EU), non-state actors anticipate future challenges and humanitarian needs,
and how they are developing capacity to respond to crises.

01.

How can Mistra Geopolitics create policy-relevant tools to predict geopolitical futures and contribute to achieving the SDGs?

02.

How can artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced information technology (ICTs) contribute as geopolitical shifters to achieve sustainable development?

03.

How can climate-related emergencies and population displacements be predicted with new technologies and artificial intelligence? 

04.

How can humanitarian aid be improved in a changing climate?

01.

How can Mistra Geopolitics create policy-relevant tools to predict geopolitical futures and contribute to achieving the SDGs?

02.

How can artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced information technology (ICTs) contribute as geopolitical shifters to achieve sustainable development?

03.

How can climate-related emergencies and population displacements be predicted with new technologies and artificial intelligence? 

04.

How can humanitarian aid be improved in a changing climate?

HIGHLIGHTS

Selections from our recent work on foresight

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Artificial intelligence and digitalization
We live in a world defined by multiple transformative processes – ecological, technical and political. The rapid development of digitalization, information and communications technologies is a force that will alter the dynamics of sustainable development and geopolitics in the coming decades.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Our top research questions on foresight

01.

How can Mistra Geopolitics create policy-relevant tools to predict geopolitical futures and contribute to achieving the SDGs?

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02.

How can artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced information technology (ICTs) contribute as geopolitical shifters in low-carbon energy transformations?

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03.

How can climate-related emergencies and population displacements be predicted with new technology?

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TEAM

Meet the team working on the 'Foresight' theme

SEI

Henrik Carlsen

SEI

Sara Talebian

SIPRI

Vincent Boulanin

Linköping University

Professor Björn-Ola Linnér

Linköping University

Professor Fredrik Heintz

SIPRI

Florian Krampe

SIPRI

Moa Peldán Carlsson

SEI

Somya Joshi

Uppsala University

Håvard Hegre

Uppsala University

Nina von Uexküll

Uppsala University

Anna Michalski

Stockholm University

Niklas Bremberg

PhD student

Maxine Leis

PhD student

Marie Francisco

PhD student

Rickard Söder

SEI

Henrik Carlsen

Henrik Carlsen is a senior research fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and Deputy Programme Director of Mistra Geopolitics. He is an expert on decision making under uncertainty, with an emphasis on climate change adaptation. His research interests are based on the intersection between science and policy on long-term challenges to society. Henrik is a researcher in Work Package 4; The inter-relationships between shifting geopolitical landscapes and the SDGs.

Telephone:+46702677410

SEI

Sara Talebian

Sara Talebian is a research fellow at Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), focusing on foresight methodologies. Her research includes academic and professional experience in futures studies with a focus on explorative and qualitative scenario techniques and futures visioning. Sara is leading Work Package 6; Engagement, Synthesis and Rapid Response

SIPRI

Vincent Boulanin

Vincent Boulanin is a Senior Researcher at SIPRI. He joined SIPRI in 2014, where he works on issues related to the production, use and control of emerging military and security technologies, notably autonomous weapon systems and cyber-security technologies.

Linköping University

Professor Björn-Ola Linnér

Björn-Ola Linnér is the Programme Director of Mistra Geopolitics and Professor at the Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research at Linköping University. He analyses how the political processes and actors affect conditions for social changes towards sustainable development in different parts of the world. He has a long experience in research dialogues with various societal actors, such as the climate convention’s secretariat, governments, businesses and environmental organizations.

Linköping University

Professor Fredrik Heintz

Fredrik Heintz is a Professor of Computer Science at Linköping University, where he leads the Reasoning and Learning lab. His research focus is artificial intelligence, especially Trustworthy AI and the intersection between machine reasoning and machine learning. His research within Mistra Geopolitics contribute to the theme Foresight Capabilities and Emerging Technologies.

Fredrik is a Director of the Wallenberg AI and Transformative Technologies Education Development Program (WASP-ED), Director of the Graduate School of the Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP). He is a President of the Swedish AI Society and Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA).

SIPRI

Florian Krampe

Florian Krampe is a Senior Researcher and Director of SIPRI’s Climate Change and Risk Programme, specializing in peace and conflict research, environmental and climate security, and international security.

SIPRI

Moa Peldán Carlsson

Moa Peldán Carlsson was a Research Assistant on emerging military and security technologies. Her focus spans autonomous weapons systems, artificial intelligence, cyber-security, arms control and emerging technology.

SEI

Somya Joshi

Somya Joshi is Head of Unit – Governance and Institutions, at SEI Headquarters. Here her main focus lies on developing her team’s research capacity around decision making, stakeholder engagement, technology and process innovation towards realizing the sustainable development goals.

Uppsala University

Håvard Hegre

Håvard Hegre is a Professor at the department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University. His research areas focus on development, democratization, peace, armed conflict, climate change and measurement of democracy. Håvard is performing research within Mistra Geopolitics’ Foresight and Emerging Technologies research theme.

Telephone:+4618-471 2372

Uppsala University

Nina von Uexküll

Nina von Uexkull is Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. Nina is leading the Mistra Geopolitics research theme Food Security in the second programme phase. Her main research areas are the impacts of climate change and natural hazards on armed conflict and human security.

Telephone:+4618-471 2357

Uppsala University

Anna Michalski

Anna Michalski is an Associate Professor at the Department of Government, Uppsala University, and a Senior Associate Senior Researcher at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs. She is the chair of the Swedish Network for European Studies in Political Science and a member of the Swedish Network for Foreign Policy Analysis. Her teaching and research interests span over international relations and European politics.

Stockholm University

Niklas Bremberg

Niklas Bremberg is an Associate Senior Lecturer at Stockholm University. Niklas is leading the Research School of Mistra Geopolitics. His research includes international relations, European integration, security communities and communities of practice, EU foreign and security policy, international cooperation on climate-related security risks, Euro-Mediterranean relations, and Spanish politics.

PhD student

Maxine Leis

Maxine Leis is a PhD Candidate at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University where she previously completed her Master’s degree. The focus of her project lies on measuring and forecasting population displacement as a function of different forms of violent conflict, climate extremes and natural hazards. The work is related to the Work Package 4, Foresight Capabilities and Emerging technologies and her thesis will be part of project 4.3 “Applying AI methodologies to forecast climate related emergencies and population displacement”.

 

PhD student

Marie Francisco

Marie Francisco has been a PhD Student at Linköping University since December 2020. Her research is part of work package 4 of Mistra Geopolitics phase II, which aims to assess the potential of new technologies in reshaping geopolitics. She is currently working on examining how artificial intelligence is made sense of as a tool for environmental governance by different actors involved in global environmental governance, with focus on states and international organisations.

PhD student

Rickard Söder

Rickard Söder is a PhD candidate at the Department of Political Science, Stockholm University, and an associate researcher at SIPRI. His research focuses on how organizations in humanitarian aid anticipate global environmental change and how they develop methods and capabilities to handle related crises. He has published papers on security in the Anthropocene and previously been an editor at Pax et Bellum Journal, a student-run academic journal in the field of Peace and Conflict Research. Rickard is part of the Foresight theme within Mistra Geopolitics.

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