In the Mistra Geopolitics policy brief “The Stockholm Geopolitics Scenarios: Exploring Security, Sustainability, and Development in a World of Growing Uncertainties” the authors explores the future of geopolitics up to 2050.

Summary

Scenarios are used for understanding and preparing for an uncertain future. Historically, exploratory scenarios have been employed separately by experts working in security, human development, and environmental change.

“The Stockholm Geopolitics Scenarios aim to combine insights from these areas and craft a comprehensive set of portraits of four plausible world configurations in 2050,” explained Karl Hallding, Senior Research Fellow at SEI and Mistra Geopolitics.

Future scenarios and key drivers of change

Drawing on a range of experts from different fields the scenario set was developed during a series of workshops where participants identified key drivers of change, described the relationships between them, and imagined pathways leading to the four different worlds in 2050.

Key messages

The scenario set was generated from combinations of uncertainties that participants rated as being most important, seen from the vantage point of Swedish actors’ opportunities to navigate changing geopolitical landscapes in ways that combine competitiveness with a contribution to a global sustainability transformation:

• Shift depicts a world where authoritarian states try to maximize national interests through technology driven development within an evolving global trading regime.
• Deal portrays a future dominated by a large Eurasian trading area with powerful green tech companies vying for scarce resources.
• Mosaic describes a world driven by local preferences, with a focus on resource efficiency and societal value.
• Fracture illustrates a multi-polar future where antagonistic regional blocs compete for influence and resource access.