Summary

As the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere rises, so does the risk that critical and possibly irreversible climate tipping points will be breached. The risk rises significantly above 3°C, when it becomes likely that some of these tipping points will create feedback loops that would further accelerate warming.

The consequences of breaching tipping points go beyond the direct physical impacts and would include major socio-economic disruption and increased likelihood of instability and conflict.

Recommendations

As the physical impacts of climate change continue to cause devastation and loss of life around the world and the science and understanding of climate risk continues to improve, countries are likely to consider the use and deployment of NETs or geoengineering approaches as part of a climate risk management strategy.

While carbon dioxide removal has the potential to play a critical role in limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C, the pursuit of these options in response to extreme climate risk will have consequences for international cooperation on climate change and on broader geopolitics. Unilateral deployment of these technologies could impact other actors and affect their national interests and ambitions.

As a basic principle, the use of NETs or geoengineering should be seen as complementary to, rather than a substitute for, the transition to clean energy sources and energy efficiency improvements. Assumptions about the future use and availability of these approaches must not be used as an excuse to delay the deployment of clean energy technologies that already exist and are cost effective.

Potential options for managing the risks associated with the deployment of NETs or SRM include:

• Informal and formal dialogue between the major emitters and most vulnerable countries on the management and the governance of NETs and geoengineering.
• Encourage cooperation and data exchange on the development and use of these technologies, so their application is based on local needs and avoids possible tensions or conflicts over, for example, land use.
• Differentiate between national emissions reduction and carbon capture targets, so reporting and analysis of data is more transparent, and ensure that carbon reduction is prioritized.
• Create an international taskforce on geoengineering, composed by different stakeholders, which would be responsible for gathering information from ongoing research projects worldwide, and would help shape the governance of these technologies.

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Citation

Dimsdale, T., Cecilio C. (2021). The geopolitics of extreme climate risk implications for negative emissions technologies and geoengineering. Brief by E3G, funding by Mistra Geopolitics and the LIFE Programme of the European Union; Sweden, EU and the USA. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial Share Alike 2.0 License. © E3G 2021