Summary 

Reaching global climate goals requires a fundamental transformation of energy systems that still rely heavily on burning fossil fuels. Scientists have calculated that to meet climate goals, fossil fuel production must decrease by roughly 6% each year from 2020 to 2030. This policy brief by Daria Ivleva from Adelphi, Claudia Strambo and Elisa Arond from SEI, explores oil and gas narratives in Colombia and Nigeria, and how civil society organizations can contribute to equitable futures beyond fossil fuels.

Key messages 

• The cases of Colombia and Nigeria show how oil and gas production narratives, including the roles that are assigned to them by governments for development, energy security, regional influence and energy transitions, contribute to entrenchment of high-carbon dependency.
• Many of the arguments and concepts on which these narratives have relied have been one-sided, inaccurate, outdated or oversimplified.
• Civil society organizations can challenge these narratives, by questioning the evidence base behind them, advocating for transparency in fossil fuel production and supporting the development of robust, evidence-based narratives of prosperous and equitable futures beyond fossil fuels.
• Civil society organizations and researchers can advocate for more ambitious climate policy by countries with lower dependence and higher capacity to transition away from fossil fuel production.

Conclusion

Research indicates that when accounting for the limitations of carbon dioxide removal technologies, limiting warming to 1.5°C would require a reduction of coal, oil and gas supply by 99%, 70% and 84%, respectively, by 2050 (Achakulwisut et al., 2023). A role that civil society organizations can play is to counteract current narratives by creating, amplifying and promoting robust, science-based narratives of prosperous and equitable futures beyond fossil fuels. These need to appeal to the public’s main concerns and core beliefs and use socially and culturally grounded language to build societal support for a just transition. At the same time, civil society organizations can influence governments by advocating for policies that reflect these visions and by holding decision-makers accountable to their climate commitments.

Read the brief

Authors and acknowledgment

Strambo, C., Ivleva, D., & Arond, E. (2024). Oil and gas production narratives in Colombia and Nigeria after the Paris Agreement. SEI brief. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2024.051

This is a deliverable from the Mistra Geopolitics programme, phase II 2021-2025, theme Decarbonization, funded by Mistra, the Swedish foundation for strategic environmental research.