Summary

The world is seeing increased international disputes and geopolitical tensions. In 2023, state-based conflicts reached historic levels, with 59 active conflicts, marking the highest number recorded since 1946. This report explores the potential trajectories of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation up to 2050, and their impacts on global trade and food security.

Scenarios for future fragmentation

The authors, Sara Talebian and Frida Lager from Stockholm Environment Institute, outline three scenarios for future fragmentation:

1. Securitized Supply Chains

Countries prioritize national security, leading to heavily secured and militarized supply chains. ​ International institutions weaken, and economic growth is uneven, with superpowers maintaining wealth while weaker states face poverty. ​

2. Resource Clubs

Transnational alliances form based on shared politics and values, with exclusive trade agreements within clubs. ​ Global institutions are weak, and economic paradigms vary between clubs, with some achieving self-sufficiency and others struggling. ​

3. Regional Islands

Geographically close clusters of countries form isolated “islands” focused on self-dependency and localized trade. National governments dominate, and regional institutions emerge to support vulnerable populations. Economic paradigms shift towards lower consumption and material intensity. ​

These three scenarios illustrate how escalating rivalries, the collapse of globalization and the decline of multilateral institutions could reshape international relations and economic landscapes. Policymakers can use these scenarios to prioritize strategies that address vulnerabilities in food systems and trade networks; and enhance resilience in the face of fragmentation and exacerbating climate risks.