Summary

Minerals are fundamental inputs for industrial economies and are increasingly necessary for states and other polities to progress technologically, to transition to cleaner sources of energy, and to remain economically and even militarily competitive. Connected to these goals, mineral security has become a significant and growing subject of policy attention. However, recent efforts by governments to secure mineral resources are taking place in the shadow of wider geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions. Emerging mineral security strategies are entangled in that wider competition. This report surveys mineral security as it is considered and pursued by four major powers: China, the European Union (EU), the Russian Federation and the United States. It also offers insights into how their strategies interact and, indeed, the degree to which the pursuit might exacerbate or mitigate the broader tensions between them.

Key messages

Mineral security is a policy pursuit that is laden with social and political values that go far beyond the materiality of these naturally occurring elements and compounds.

• Policy Context: Mineral security involves developmental, environmental, and geostrategic goals, reflecting how states perceive and prioritize threats;
• Global vs. National Framing: Current national strategies can create zero-sum perceptions, but a global approach could reveal that sufficient mineral reserves do exist and meeting demand is in fact impeded by far more factors than lack of minerals alone;
• Opportunities for Collaboration: Engaging with developing countries can address governance and environmental issues in mineral supply chains. Initiatives like the USA’s Minerals Security Partnership and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Club should consider an open dialogue, with an eye towards wider multilateral consensus;
• Climate Action and Trade: Whilst political consensus exists on climate action as a global good, trade restrictions in the clean energy sphere have turned some of the climate action space into an interstate battleground. The scope of already existing cooperative agreements should be widened to include the minerals sector to reduce both the economic and environmental costs of green transition.
• Economic Resilience: The pursuit of economic security should be seen as an opportunity for resilience rather than a zero-sum competition. Diversifying supply chains and enhancing recycling can stabilize the global market.
• Broader Security Considerations: Mineral security should recognize diverse risks faced by various stakeholders. While geopolitical tensions exist, addressing broader forms of insecurity can foster shared benefits for global and human security, promoting cooperation instead of conflict.

Citation

Zhou, J. Månberger, A. (2024). Critical Minerals and Great Power Competition: a overview, SIPRI and Mistra Geopolitics, https://doi.org/10.55163/WEMJ9585