Summary

Areas beyond government control constitute a highly diverse subgroup of fragile and conflict-affected settings. As a result of conflict and weak governance, many of these areas have become more vulnerable to climate change. Their communities have been left with limited capacity to respond to changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events. These settings pose unique challenges for external engagement and have, therefore, long been overlooked in adaptation efforts.

The challenges of climate adaptation

In 2022, about a quarter of the world’s population lived in conflict-affected areas and many of these areas are also highly vulnerable to climate change.  Conflict and weak governance exacerbate people’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by limiting their potential to cope with climate extremes and respond to changing conditions. These populations thus need support for climate change adaptation but this is, however, fraught with obstacles. As well as being difficult to access and unsafe, these areas present risks related to corruption, damage and theft of belongings, and deliberate or accidental destruction of property. Moreover, the volatile and unpredictable nature of these areas means that violence can erupt at any time, interrupting project implementation and leading to increased costs and extended timelines.

This paper focuses on areas beyond government control impacted by the presence of non-state armed groups and proposes a framework consisting of four guiding questions that may be helpful in identifying the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for a particular context.

Key Findings

• Understanding the possibilities for climate adaptation in a particular context requires knowledge of the different types of conflict and patterns of violent conflict, the extent of wartime governance and the diversity of non state armed groups. By using this knowledge practitioners can determine which adaptation measures may be feasible.
• Many different types of climate adaptation measures can be identified and these actions must align with local priorities and capacities and should cause no harm
• Four aspects are identified that influence the suitability of a measure for implementation in or near conflict-affected areas:

1. the extent to which preparatory work can be conducted outside the conflict-affected area;
2. the vulnerability of the measure to destruction or theft;
3. the compatibility of the measure with local interests, capacities and resources;
4. and the degree to which the measure results in a redistribution of resources and vulnerabilities or benefits particular groups in society  and thus could create or worsen tensions.

Conclusions

Implementing climate change adaptation measures in areas beyond government control involves numerous challenges. Conflict often results in increased costs, extended timelines and disruption of activities, meaning more resources and time are needed to complete projects. However, examples of climate action and disaster risk reduction provide evidence that reaching and supporting communities in these areas is possible. An improved, nuanced understanding of the heterogeneity in areas beyond government control and the variety of adaptation actions available could contribute to enhancing the climate resilience of more, highly vulnerable, people.

Citation

Meijer, K., Böhle, S.A, (2024). Climate change adaptation in areas beyond government control: opportunities and limitations. Report by SIPRI and Mistra Geopolitics. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-insights-peace-and-security/climate-change-adaptation-areas-beyond-government-control-opportunities-and-limitations