In the paper “A game changing? The geopolitics of decarbonisation through the lens of trade” Daria Ivleva at adelphi and André Månberger at Lund University highlight selected entry points for EU policy makers to improve the analysis and to advance policy responses, to prepare for a changing “trade game”.

Trade is a key lens to observe the dynamics associated with geopolitics of decarbonization. For the European Union (EU) in particular, trade is a central element of its external action and decarbonization agendas. Based on existing literature, this Mistra Geopolitics paper scopes the links of geopolitics and decarbonization in the area of trade, provides illustrative examples, and reflects upon the implications for EU policy makers.

Key messages

All three dimensions of trade – substance, institutions and transportation – have a geopolitical component and will likely experience shifts in the course of decarbonization. Following the chess analogy, the pieces, the rules and even the mode of moving the pieces around are likely to change.

Given the expected scale and multidimensionality of this change, trade might become an entirely different “game” in the coming decades. The authors suggest to structure the ways in which geopolitics of decarbonization affects trade along three dimensions. In an analogy to chess, geopolitics of decarbonization shapes:

1. the chess pieces (i.e. the substance of trade)
2. the rules of how to move the pieces across the board (i.e. institutional governing trade)
3. the way the pieces get in motion (transportation that makes trade possible).

Conclusion