Launched in 2017, Mistra Geopolitics is one of the largest international research programs dedicated to exploring the interactions between climate, geopolitics, and human security. Over the past eight years, the program has conducted extensive research in four key areas: sustainable oceans, food security, decarbonization, and foresight, including emerging technologies. In New York the Mistra Geopolitics delegation met twelve organizations to present research insights from the program’s eight years, but also to get input to further research and develop future partnerships.  Apart from the UN agencies the Mistra Geopolitics delegation also had presentations and meetings with organizations, think tanks and universities that work on issues related to sustainability and security.

From the left: Therese Bennich, Lisa Dellmuth, Caroline Ankarcrona,  Annika Markovic, Björn-Ola Linnér, Annika Hilgert. Photo by Mistra Geopolitics.

High Demand for Geopolitical and Climate Research

In today’s volatile geopolitical landscape, Mistra Geopolitics’ research is increasingly relevant. Program Director Professor Björn-Ola Linnér highlighted the challenges posed by global tensions.

It is very clear how the tense situation in the world today, with both Russia’s war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza and the escalation between China and the United States, complicates the work of the UN and challenges global sustainability work. The message at the meetings has been that it is more about maintaining the positions than increasing the intensity of the sustainability work. Expectations are low and many are concerned.

Seminar on Geopolitics of Sustainability

During their visit, Mistra Geopolitics organized a seminar at the Swedish permanent mission to the UN for ambassadors from different countries. The seminar, moderated by Annika Markovic, Sweden’s Ambassador to Austria and Slovakia, focused on the geopolitics of sustainability. Key presentations included:

• Professor Lisa Dellmuth discussed ongoing research on aid, climate risks, and food security and how humanitarian needs drive multilateral aid allocation, rather than strategic donor interests and the fact that United Nations Central Emergency Relief Fund aid crowds in bilateral humanitarian aid.
• Research Fellow Therese Bennich presented a report on SDG interlinkages and how they can advance the 2030 Agenda, highlighting patterns of synergies and trade-offs that can aid countries in prioritizing SDG actions.
• Professor Björn-Ola Linnér called for urgent research on the geopolitical challenges faced by lower-income countries, stressing the need for tailored response measures.

Photo by Mistra Geopolitics from the left: Photo 1. Caroline Ankarcrona, Board Member Mistra Geopolitics, Maritza Chan-Valverde, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of Costa Rica to the UN, Annika Markovic, Sweden’s Ambassador to Austria and Slovakia, Permanent representative to the United Nations in Vienna.  Photo 2. Therese Bennich, Research Fellow, SEI. Photo 3.  Lisa Dellmuth, Professor, Stockholm University.

Great interest in research on AI in Climate and Security

Mistra Geopolitics’ studies on artificial intelligence attracted significant interest. Senior Researcher Henrik Carlsen shared insights on AI-assisted scenario building for sustainable development.

Since climate change is an irreversible and slow process with major problems along the way, there is a need for long-term decision-making. The entire climate area is also organized based on a scenario structure, and my question is how AI systems can help us build better scenarios that can be used hands-on and that combine different variables and time scales.

We need to facilitate a transparent discussion on transparency around the role of AI for scientific processes and how these results are used to inform policy.

The question is how we can better anticipate the unpredictable, Björn-Ola Linnér continues. A research group within the programme is investigating how AI and machine learning can be used to collect data on various crises and how this correlates with a changing climate such as drought and extreme weather events.

– The analyses show that warmer temperatures increase the risks of humanitarian crises and based on the data, we can also get an indication where in the world these risks potentially can develop, Linnér explains.

Photo by Mistra Geopolitics from the left: Photo 1. UNDP meeting, Photo 2. Björn-Ola Linnér, Professor and Programme Director of Mistra Geopolitics.

Diverse perspectives on Climate and Security

The delegation also presented findings from their surveys conducted at recent climate negotiations. The surveys revealed differing views on the connection between climate change and security risks, with richer countries seeing global threats and more vulnerable nations perceiving local risks. Linnér emphasized the importance of aligning theoretical perspectives with practical policy analysis to address these challenges effectively.

A path forward

The meetings in New York were a significant step in Mistra Geopolitics’ mission to ensure that the research it conducts informs global policy and decision-making.

Reflecting on the trip Björn-Ola Linnér concluded.

The meetings have given us in-depth contacts and collaboration areas, knowledge exchange and important inputs for continued research in the field. It is vital to meet policy and decision makers face to face and we now have a neat to-do list to tackle.

As the world faces complex challenges at the intersection of climate and geopolitics, Mistra Geopolitics’ commitment to bridging research and policy offers a path forward to a more sustainable future.