Researchers from the climate change think tank E3G have studied how climate risk and the measures to avoid breaching tipping points could impact international geopolitics. Lead author Taylor Dimsdale, Director of E3G’s Risk and Resilience Program in Washington, DC and part of Mistra Ge­opolitics’ Decarbonization theme, stated:

“We’re already struggling to manage climate impacts at just 1ºC of warming. The closer you get to tipping points like ice sheet collapse, the more you start worrying about unmanageable impacts. Understanding those risks will upend everything we think we know about climate change and geopolitics. Policymakers have consistently missed opportunities to prepare for climate change. We literally can’t afford to miss this one.”

The geopolitics of climate tipping points

Key messages in the report “Living on the edge: climate tipping points reshaping geopolitics” include:

• The world is much closer to breaching climate tipping points in critical Earth systems than previously thought. The con­sequences are so severe that a better understanding of the risk will have far-reaching implications for global coopera­tion on technology, finance, food, energy and migration.
• No government or institution worldwide is prepared for a change at the scale needed. While some are integrating cli­mate risk assessments into their planning, none are seri­ously considering the risk of tipping points and subsequent geopolitical tensions.
• Policymakers can still avoid unmanageable impacts by adopt­ing comprehensive climate risk management frameworks. This includes investing in better data and risk assessment, scaling up finance for vulnerable countries and communities, and strengthening international dialogue on extreme risk.

Abrupt and often irreversible climate change impacts

Climate tipping points are thresholds of abrupt and often irre­versible change in the climate system. The most recent sci­ence on extreme risk warns of some climate tipping points already being breached. Additional tipping points could be breached even with less than 2°C of warming. These include the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the breakdown of the Gulf Stream, the dieback of the Amazon forest and coral reefs, and the slowdown of the Atlantic Merid­ional Overturning Circulation.

The impact of breaching these tipping points cannot be measured in economic or environmental terms alone, but they would have dire consequences for human society and inter­national security.

The study has identified the impacts of climate tipping points in five different areas:

• Technologies such as geoengineering are untested and carry risks of unintended consequences that could be une­venly distributed geographically.
• Climate finance for adaptation and loss and damage are already contentious and will become more urgent as the risks increase.
• Food security can be threatened by tipping points, contrib­uting to political and social instability.
• Energy security is likely to be affected by breaching tipping points, which could incentivize the energy transition but also shift the balance of power between energy producers and consumers worldwide.
• Migration flows could be exacerbated by extreme climate impacts, causing geopolitical tensions between countries and regions.

These potential geopolitical impacts do not receive enough political attention and planning. This could lead to geopolitical fragmentation where countries choose to “go it alone”, jeop­ardizing ongoing mitigation and adaptation efforts.

This article is written by Ylva Rylander at SEI, and published in Mistra Geopolitics’ annual report 2022.

→ Read the study

→ Read press release by E3G

For further information, please contact:

E3G

Taylor Dimsdale

Taylor Dimsdale is a Program Director at E3G in the area of Risk & Resilience. He works on several programmes including climate risk and security, the geopolitics of decarbonization, sustainable finance, and climate diplomacy. In Mistra Geopolitics, he works on the geopolitics of decarbonization.

Email:[email protected]

SEI

Ylva Rylander

Ylva Rylander is the press contact for Mistra Geopolitics. Ylva is a Communications and Impact Officer at Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). As a core member of SEI’s communications team and previous Press Officer of SEI, Ylva writes and edits press releases and creates news stories. With over 15 years of experience in public relations, awareness raising and external communication, she also provides strategic advice to SEI and Mistra Geopolitics researchers to help them maximize the impact of their research.

Telephone:+4673 150 33 84

Authors of the study

Taylor Dimsdale, Director of E3G’s Risk and Resilience Program in Washington and researcher in Mistra Geopolitics Decarbonization team; Carolina Cecilio, Policy Advisor for Risk and Resilience at E3G; Ines Benomar, Researcher in Climate Diplomacy and Risk and Resilience at E3G.

News story written by Ylva Rylander, Communications Officer for Mistra Geopolitics, based on the E3G press release published 21 September. #MistraGeopolitics #Climate #COP27

About E3G

E3G is an independent climate change think tank with a global outlook. They work on the frontier of the climate landscape, tackling the barriers and advancing the solutions to a safe climate. Their goal is to translate climate politics, economics and policies into action. E3G is a consortium partner in the Mistra Geopolitics research programme which is hosted by SEI and funded by Mistra.